One of the facts about technology is that it’s easy to predict where technology is heading but extremely difficult to predict what people will do with it.

Kashminder Singh

Everyone makes New Year predictions. We’ve made our fair share of predictions over the years and as it turns out, we have a pretty good record at spotting technology trends. Since these are still early days in 2007, here are my thoughts on what we can expect from the mobile industry this year.

First off, I expect 3G to put up a better showing this year. I must admit that I have been a sceptic for the last two years because I felt that there just weren’t enough compelling reasons to drive 3G uptake. Well, I think that’s beginning to change.

One of the facts about technology is that it’s easy to predict where technology is heading but extremely difficult to predict what people will do with it. The arrival of Internet broadband was easy to spot but not many thought that it would end up in people using it to share things like videos and pictures in sites like YouTube and Flickr. Blogs were meant to be personal diaries but instead led to the rise of citizen journalism.

Similarly, most people got it wrong when they predicted that people will want to use 3G to make casual video calls, view movies on their small screens or for a bit of surfing when they couldn’t access their primary broadband connection.

Things will be different this year. I am beginning to see people use the technology in ways we might not have expected. For example, Maxis decided to push their 3G network as a full alternative to traditional broadband. Instead of Streamyx, people can choose to use Maxis 3G.
I have also seen gadgets that make innovative use of 3G technology. Without stealing the thunder from the people preparing to launch them here, these gadgets use 3G technology in ways I would never have imagined.

So as more companies figure out ways to use 3G, I predict that more people will sign up for 3G. They just won’t be making video calls or at least they won’t be making video calls in place of regular calls.

Mobile instant messaging will also gain strength this year. The only question is which technology we will use. Currently, it’s possible to use IM applications like Yahoo Messenger or MSN messenger over GPRS, EDGE or 3G networks. But the GSM association is pushing for a common IM standard that will work very much like text messaging. Either way, we will be moving a lot of our IM sessions onto our mobile devices.

Mobile TV will also gain prominence. The first attempts a few years back were quite funny. I remember someone in India announcing that they had just made available the first full length Hindi movie for mobile screens. Now who would want to watch a full two and a half hour movie complete with elaborate songs and dances routines on a two and a half inch screen? The answer was nobody.

But now, the success of YouTube on the Internet, which is essentially a collection of short videos, have shown the way to those working on mobile solutions. Almost simultaneously, efforts have begun all over the world to create ‘Made for Mobile Devices’ movies. These shows will be short and formatted for optimal viewing on mobile screens. Since people will also continue their love affair with the video recorders found on most mobile phones there should be enough content to drive the uptake of mobile TV.

Another easy trend to spot will be the explosive growth of smartphones. Almost everybody is eyeing to grab a smartphone so most phones will become very much smarter. Even those who say they don’t need a smartphone will buy one when they change their phones and will end up falling in love with these converged and fully connected devices.

Despite all these new developments, the growth of the humble SMS will not slow down. Text messaging has become a way of life and that’s not about to change anytime soon. But I also predict that we will soon end up disliking most of the messages we receive. As more people start living their lives on mobile devices, you can bet that the marketers won’t be far away. So get ready for more SPAM err… I mean advertising messages from your telcos. You will also see the first attempts to use location based technology and proximity communication technologies like Bluetooth and NFC (Near Field Communications) as marketing and social networking tools. Expect to receive text messages or Bluetooth messages sharing special offers from a retail shop just when you are walking by it.

And my final prediction is that we will continue to have drama and controversy in the mobile scene. There are WiMAX licenses to give away, Number Portability to implement, MVNOs planning to take off and two 3G licensees yet to do something with the 3G licenses they were given more than a year ago. Oh yes, it’s going to be a fun year!

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